Despite seeing a record $2.4 billion worth of exports in 2024, the U.S. spirits industry is warning of a "highly unpredictable" outlook for 2025.

According to an April 24 release from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), U.S. exports of spirits increased by 10% year-over-year in 2024, thanks in large part to a 39% bump in exports to the European Union. The increase in EU business was credited to concerns over the potential return of tariffs on American whiskey in 2025, with the scars still fresh from levies that had been paused in 2022.

Before the Trump administration temporarily halted proposed tariffs against dozens of countries in early April, the EU had planned to retaliate with 50% levies of its own on an array of U.S. products, including whiskey. The bloc has since put those plans on hold while it negotiates a trade deal with the U.S., but the situation still threatens to upend a U.S. spirits industry that lost out on more than $100 million worth of exports when EU whiskey tariffs were last in effect between 2018 and 2021. After President Trump enacted separate tariffs against Canada and Mexico in mid-March, Canada also hit back with 25% levies against American whiskey, and the majority of Canadian provinces have since removed U.S. alcohol from liquor store shelves. 

“Unfortunately, ongoing trade disputes unrelated to our sector have caused uncertainty, keeping many U.S. distillers on the sidelines and curtailing sales growth," DISCUS president and CEO Chris Swonger said. 

Respectively, the EU and Canada are the two largest markets in the world for American spirits. In 2024, the U.S. exported $1.2 billion worth of spirits to the former, as well as $221 million to the latter.